Dashboard
Auto-refresh: 60s
Portfolio Value
$0.00
Live from Polymarket
Today's P&L
$0.00
0%
Win Rate
-
No resolved bets
Total P&L
$0.00
Since Day 1
Daily P&L
Today's Bets
| # | Pick | Buy Price | Current | Shares | Staked | Return | Status | P&L |
|---|
Today's Picks — Day 3 (Mon 23 Mar)
Loading picks...
Core Betting Rules
#1
One bet per event. No hedging same match. Ten independent edges = maximum diversification. Max 5% exposure per outcome.
#2
Positive EV on every entry. No gut feelings, no vibes. If there's no verifiable edge vs external data, skip the bet entirely.
#3
Two sessions per day. 10 bets at 9am, 10 bets at 3pm Dublin. 5% bankroll per bet. Roll over morning winnings into afternoon session.
#4
Cross-platform check every pick. Compare Polymarket price to FanDuel/DraftKings/bookmaker odds. If Polymarket price > bookmaker implied probability, no bet.
#5
Read resolution rules. Check the exact oracle and resolution criteria for every market. Edge lives in how markets resolve, not what they seem to mean.
#6
No heavy favourites at short odds. Alcaraz at 1/8 = 63c profit on $5 risk. Only use short-odds picks in builders or accumulators.
#7
No handicap/spread bets unless edge is >15% above implied probability. Spreads are lottery tickets, not bets.
#8
Minimum $500K liquidity. Thin markets = wide spreads = slippage eats your edge. Only trade liquid markets.
#9
24-hour resolution only. All markets must resolve within 24 hours of placement. No long-dated positions tying up capital.
#10
Kelly Criterion sizing. Use 85% Kelly for position sizing. Accounts for slippage and model uncertainty. Never full Kelly.
#11
Track everything. Full P&L scorecard daily. What worked, what didn't, category performance. No unlogged picks ever.
Avoid List (Backed by Data)
Premier League -- Too unpredictable. Mid-table upsets constantly. Day 1: Everton 3-0 Chelsea cost us 20% of bankroll.
NHL puck lines -- Goalie-dependent randomness. Day 3: 0/2 on NHL picks. Moneyline only if at all.
Momentum trading -- 94.2% death rate in 10,000 simulations. Edge is gone by the time the move is visible.
Gut feeling / news-based -- 91.7% death rate. Public information is already priced in. Model-first, never intuition.
Copy-trading whales -- 88.3% death rate. You enter after the whale, buy their exit liquidity.
BTTS in mismatches -- Don't pick BTTS just because one team scores a lot. Blowouts kill BTTS. Day 3: Leipzig 5-0.
Strategy Arsenal
ACTIVE
Cross-Platform Arbitrage
Compare Polymarket vs FanDuel/DraftKings odds. Only bet when Polymarket price is below bookmaker implied probability. Scanner runs before every session.
Source: juamm11 -- $63K profit
Compare Polymarket vs FanDuel/DraftKings odds. Only bet when Polymarket price is below bookmaker implied probability. Scanner runs before every session.
Source: juamm11 -- $63K profit
TESTING
Weather Arbitrage
Pull NOAA + AccuWeather + Open-Meteo every 15 mins. Aggregate into weighted probability. Trade when forecast disagrees with market by >10%. 96 data points/day vs 1 for humans.
Source: ColdMath -- $69K profit
Pull NOAA + AccuWeather + Open-Meteo every 15 mins. Aggregate into weighted probability. Trade when forecast disagrees with market by >10%. 96 data points/day vs 1 for humans.
Source: ColdMath -- $69K profit
TESTING
Insurance Model
Buy "No" at 88-98c on events the crowd overestimates. Collect premium. 71.4% survival rate in 10K simulations. 5 of 20 daily picks allocated to this.
Source: LucasMeow -- $275K profit
Buy "No" at 88-98c on events the crowd overestimates. Collect premium. 71.4% survival rate in 10K simulations. 5 of 20 daily picks allocated to this.
Source: LucasMeow -- $275K profit
TESTING
Mean Reversion
When price deviates >2 sigma from 7-day average, buy the panic. Wait for reversion, sell. Crowd sells fear, system buys the deviation.
Classic pairs trading adapted for prediction markets
When price deviates >2 sigma from 7-day average, buy the panic. Wait for reversion, sell. Crowd sells fear, system buys the deviation.
Classic pairs trading adapted for prediction markets
PLANNED
Dead Market Scavenging
Markets near expiry with obvious outcomes not fully priced. Buy at 92c, collect $1 at resolution. 8% return in hours. Scanner identifies these automatically.
Markets near expiry with obvious outcomes not fully priced. Buy at 92c, collect $1 at resolution. 8% return in hours. Scanner identifies these automatically.
PLANNED
Time Zone Edge
Polymarket is US-heavy. Most traders sleep midnight-8am EST. Our 9am Dublin = 4am New York. European news breaks while the orderbook is thin and slow.
Polymarket is US-heavy. Most traders sleep midnight-8am EST. Our 9am Dublin = 4am New York. European news breaks while the orderbook is thin and slow.
PLANNED
New Market Launch
Fresh markets have thin orderbooks and volatile pricing. First 24-48 hours have widest spreads and most retail-driven pricing. Scanner catches mispricings at launch.
Fresh markets have thin orderbooks and volatile pricing. First 24-48 hours have widest spreads and most retail-driven pricing. Scanner catches mispricings at launch.
FUTURE
Market Making Bot
Post both bid and ask, collect the spread. Outcome doesn't matter. Needs always-on infrastructure. The Mac Mini endgame.
Source: Citadel/Jump/Virtu strategy adapted for Polymarket
Post both bid and ask, collect the spread. Outcome doesn't matter. Needs always-on infrastructure. The Mac Mini endgame.
Source: Citadel/Jump/Virtu strategy adapted for Polymarket
FUTURE
News Sniper Bot
Monitor Twitter/X for injury reports, breaking news. Buy/sell before retail reads the headline. 3-5 min window is the edge.
Source: juamm11 NBA bot, TROLLSK Elon bot
Monitor Twitter/X for injury reports, breaking news. Buy/sell before retail reads the headline. 3-5 min window is the edge.
Source: juamm11 NBA bot, TROLLSK Elon bot
Approved Markets (Bet ONLY These)
TIER 1
NCAA Basketball -- Seeded tournaments, clear form data, high liquidity. Our best edge source.
TIER 1
NHL Moneyline -- Day 1: 3/4 wins (75%). Moneyline only, never puck lines.
TIER 1
Insurance Model (NO bets) -- Buy NO at 88-98c on overestimated events. 5 of 20 daily picks. Any category.
TIER 2
NBA Moneyline -- Big mismatches only. No spreads.
TIER 2
Politics / News / Crypto -- Near-resolved outcomes with clear edge. Must resolve within 24h.
TIER 2
Tennis (early rounds) -- Top 10 vs qualifiers. Predictable outcomes.
NOT APPROVED — FOOTBALL (any league): Day 1+2 data: 4 draws in 2 days. Football win markets are 2-outcome bets with a hidden 3rd outcome (draw) that Polymarket doesn't hedge for. EPL/La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga/Eredivisie/Brazilian Serie A/Argentine Liga/MLS/EFL Cup/Ligue 1 — ALL BANNED. This includes cup finals. Day 2: 10 of 13 bets were football. Result: -$2.18. Lesson learned.
Rule Violations Log
| Date | Rule Broken | What Happened | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 2 | Approved markets | 13 bets across Eredivisie, Brazilian Serie A, Argentine Liga, MLS, EFL Cup — NONE approved. Should be NHL/NBA/NCAAB only. | -$2.18 |
| Day 2 | Insurance minimum | 0 of 13 bets were insurance (NO at 88-98c). Should be 5 of 20 picks. | Lost free edge |
| Day 2 | Draw trap (×4) | Feyenoord drew, San Diego drew, Cruzeiro drew, NEC drew. Football has 30%+ draw rate — unhedgeable risk. | 4 losses |
| Day 1 | One bet per event | Chelsea Win + Draw = 2 bets on 1 match. 20% bankroll on a single outcome. | -$10.62 |
| Day 1 | Approved markets | EPL bets on Day 1. Chelsea 0-3 Everton. Premier League is structurally unpredictable. | -$10.62 |
Kill Switch (Safety Layer)
VPIN Monitor: VPIN = |V_buy - V_sell| / (V_buy + V_sell). High VPIN = toxic flow = someone knows something you don't. When VPIN spikes: widen spread, reduce size, or go dark.
Adverse Selection Check: If 70%+ of fills hit one side, you're being hunted. Step back immediately.
Daily Loss Limit: If daily P&L drops below -15% of starting balance, stop trading for the day. Reassess in the afternoon or next morning.
No More Deposits. $53.10 is the war chest. Goal: $1,000. No top-ups. Ever.
The Deal
$53.10 → $1,000
~4.3% daily compound over 30 days
Prize: Midnight Black M4 Mac Mini
Weather Bot Simulation ($100 Paper Trade)
Sim Balance
--
Open Positions
--
Wins / Losses
--
Avg EV
--
Total Invested
--
Potential Payout
--
HOW IT WORKS
Weather bot fetches forecasts from ECMWF, HRRR (US hourly), and METAR (live airport obs) for 20 cities worldwide.
Finds temperature bucket markets on Polymarket where the forecast probability exceeds the market price.
Uses Kelly Criterion for position sizing. Resolves on airport weather stations (not city centre).
This is simulation mode -- no real money placed.
Open Weather Positions
| City | Date | Bucket | Forecast | Source | Entry | EV | Cost | Shares | Status |
|---|